我预测未来的10条规则
微wx笑
2020-05-23【前路之思】
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预测 未来 规则
对于投资者做决策而言，挑战是如何预测一些重要事件及其影响；就个人而言，我创建了自己的10条规则，在预测经济或政治事件时，我将这些规则用作指导
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内容通过机器翻译为中文，难免与原文产生出入，请以原文为主。
The nice thing about being an investor is that the forces that drive the markets change all the time. However, there are different “market regimes” in which a major narrative dominates market action.
成为投资者的好处是驱动市场的力量一直在变化。但是，在不同的“市场制度”中，主要叙述支配着市场行为。
Over the last 20 years of my career, there have been several ascendant market narratives: technology companies revolutionizing the world, followed by the “jobless recovery” of the early 2000s, and then the “Great Moderation” a few years later. Suddenly in 2007, we all had to become experts in housing and mortgage markets as subprime mortgages blew up the world.
在我职业生涯的最后20年中，出现了几项方兴未艾的市场故事：科技公司彻底改变了世界，其后是2000年代初期的“失业复苏”，然后是几年后的“大裁员”。突然在2007年，随着次级抵押贷款的爆炸式增长，我们所有人都必须成为住房和抵押贷款市场的专家。
Then it was back to central bankers and such unconventional monetary policy as quantitative easing (QE) and “Operation Twist” that created a “new normal.” Then came the European debt crisis and austerity, which was replaced in recent years by geopolitics and the rise of populism.
然后又回到了央行行长，而诸如量化宽松（QE）和“扭曲运营”之类的非常规货币政策创造了“新常态”。随后是欧洲债务危机和紧缩政策，近年来被地缘政治和民粹主义兴起所取代。
And while I am generally skeptical that individual geopolitical events will have a lasting influence on financial markets, there are clearly circumstances — the US–China trade tensions or Brexit, for example — that can and do have a material influence on investments.
虽然我通常对个别的地缘政治事件将对金融市场产生持久影响持怀疑态度，但显然在某些情况下-例如中美贸易紧张或英国退欧-可能而且确实会对投资产生重大影响。
The challenge then is how to forecast these events and their impact. For forecasting rules, the gold standard is described in Dan Gardner and Philip Tetlock’s Superforecasting — a mandatory read for anyone who forecasts. But there are other great resources, including Steve LeVine’s 14 rules.
接下来的挑战是如何预测这些事件及其影响。
对于预测规则，Dan Gardner和Philip Tetlock的Superforecasting中描述了黄金标准-进行预测的任何人都必须阅读。
但是还有其他很多资源，包括Steve LeVine的14条规则。
Personally, I have created my own set of 10 rules that I try to use as guidance when forecasting economic or political events:
就个人而言，我创建了自己的10条规则，在预测经济或政治事件时，我将这些规则用作指导：
1. Data matters.
We humans are drawn to anecdotes and illustrations, but looks can be deceiving. Always base your forecasts on data, not qualitative arguments. Euclid’s Elements was one of the earliest texts on geometry, yet none of its oldest extant fragments include a single drawing.
1、数据很重要
我们人类被趣闻轶事和插图所吸引，但外表却具有欺骗性。始终将预测基于数据而不是定性论据。欧几里得的《元素》是关于几何的最早教科书之一，但其现存最古老的片段中都没有一幅画。
Torture the data until it confesses, but don’t frame the data to the story. The data-mining trap is easy to fall into.
折磨数据直到供认为止，但不要将数据框架化为故事。数据挖掘陷阱很容易陷入。
Start with base rates. The assumption that nothing changes and that an event is as likely in the future as it was in the past is a good starting point, but not the end point. Adjust this base rate with the information you have at the moment.
从基本费率开始。假设什么都不会改变，并且将来发生的事件与过去一样可能是一个很好的起点，而不是终点。根据您当前的信息调整此基本费率。
2. Don’t make extreme forecasts.
Predicting the next financial crisis will make you famous if you do it at the right time. It will cost you money and reputation at all others. Remember that there are only two kinds of forecasts: Lucky and wrong.
2、不要做出极端的预测。
预测下一次金融危机将使您在适当的时候出名。这将花费您金钱和声誉。请记住，只有两种预测：“幸运”和“错误”
3. Reversion to the mean is a powerful force.
In economics as well as politics, extremes cannot survive for long. People trend toward average, and competitive forces in business lead to mean reversion.
3、回归均值是最强大的力量之一。
在经济学和政治领域，极端主义都无法长期生存。人们趋向于平均水平。各种竞争都会导致回归均值。
4. We are creatures of habit.
If something has worked in the past, people will keep doing it almost forever. This introduces long-lasting trends. Don’t expect them to change quickly even with mean reversion. It is incredible how long a broken system can survive. Just think of Japan.
4.我们是习惯的动物。
如果过去做过某事，人们将永远永远做下去。这引入了长期趋势。即使平均回复，也不要指望它们会迅速改变。令人难以置信的是，一个损坏的系统可以生存多长时间。试想一下日本。
5. We rarely fall off a cliff.
People often change their habits in the face of a looming catastrophe. But for that behavioral change to occur, the catastrophe must be salient, the outcome certain, and the solution simple.
5.我们很少掉下悬崖。
人们经常在迫在眉睫的灾难面前改变自己的习惯。但是要使这种行为发生变化，灾难必须是突出的，确定的结果并且解决方案必须简单。
6. A full stomach does not riot.
Revolutions and uprisings rarely occur among people who are well fed and feel relatively safe. A lack of personal freedom is not enough to spark insurrections, but a lack of food or water or widespread injustice all are. The Tiananmen Square protests in China were triggered by higher food prices. So too was the Arab Spring.
6.饱肚子不会暴动。
饱食和感觉相对安全的人很少发生革命和起义。缺乏人身自由不足以引发叛乱，但缺乏食物或水或普遍存在的不公正现象都是。食品价格上涨引发了中国天安门广场的抗议活动。阿拉伯之春也是如此。
7. The first goal of political and business leaders is to stay in power.
Viewed through that lens, many actions can easily be predicted.
7.政治和商业领袖的首要目标是保持政权。
通过该镜头可以轻松预测许多动作。
8. The second goal of political and business leaders is to get rich.
Combined with the previous rule, this explains about 90% of all behavior.
8.政治和商业领袖的第二个目标是致富。
结合以前的规则，这可以解释所有行为的大约90％。
9. Remember Occam’s razor.
The simplest explanation is the most likely to be correct. Ignore conspiracy theories.
9.记住奥卡姆（Occam）的剃刀。
注：参考哲学剃刀
最简单的解释最有可能是正确的。忽略阴谋论。
10. Don’t follow rules blindly.
This applies to these rules as well as all others.
10.不要盲目遵守规则。
这适用于这些规则以及所有其他规则。
For more from Joachim Klement, CFA, don’t miss Risk Profiling and Tolerance: Insights for the Private Wealth Manager, from the CFA Institute Research Foundation, and sign up for his regular commentary at Klement on Investing.
有关CFA的Joachim Klement的更多信息，请不要错过CFA研究所研究基金会的风险分析和宽容：私人财富经理的见解，并在Klement上发表有关投资的定期评论。
If you liked this post, don’t forget to subscribe to the Enterprising Investor.
如果您喜欢这篇文章，请别忘了订阅有进取心的投资者。
相关评论
Warren Miller says:
I have three rules of forecasting:
1. If you must forecast, forecast often.
2. Given ’em a date, or give ’em a number, but never give ’em both.
3. In the unlikely case that any of your forecasts is ever accurate, no matter how big a fluke it is, never, Never, NEVER let ’em forget it!
我有三个预测规则：
1.如果必须进行预测，请经常进行预测。
2.给定日期，或给数字，但不要同时给两个。
3.在不太可能的情况下，您的任何预测都是准确的，无论a幸有多大，永远不要，永远不要让我们忘记它！
Kirk Cornwell says:
Processing available information legitimizes a “forecast”, but the nature of supposed “outcomes” may demonstrate that the original inputs were not the most important part of the story. An intelligent, well-considered prediction can be way off the mark when the black swan flies in.
处理可用的信息将“预测”合法化，但是假定的“结果”的性质可能表明原始输入不是故事中最重要的部分。当黑天鹅飞来飞去时，一个明智的，经过深思熟虑的预测可能会偏离目标。
Tony says:
If i may add one forecasting rules that i live by is that a forecast is as strong as the rationale of the theory behind it. The theory could be an existing theory or original, it doesn’t matter. what matters is if the rationale, behind, stands the test of logic.
如果我可以添加一个我所依据的预测规则，那就是预测与它背后的理论基础一样强大。该理论可以是现有理论也可以是原始理论，都没关系。重要的是，背后的理论依据是否经受了逻辑的考验。
原文：
10 Rules for Forecasting
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